Stock markets rise ahead of US election

Global stock markets rose and the dollar slid Monday as investors steel themselves for a coin-toss US presidential election, an interest rate decision and expected Chinese stimulus measures.

Oil prices rallied around 2.5 per cent after eight members of the OPEC+ group of producers said Sunday they would extend supply cuts until the end of next month.

They had been delaying output hikes on worries about slowing demand in China and the United States.

All major European and Asian markets gained, tracking a positive lead from Wall Street ahead of the weekend.
“Traders are gearing up for perhaps the most important week of the year,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

Investors are looking for any hint of an advantage between the US presidential candidates as Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump remain neck and neck ahead of Tuesday’s poll.

The dollar retreated against main rivals Monday as a fresh opinion poll in Iowa, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020, showed Harris leading.
A victory for Trump is seen as being positive for the dollar and pushing up Treasury yields owing to his pledges to cut taxes and impose hefty tariffs on imports.

Elections for the Senate and House of Representatives are also being closely watched amid speculation the Republicans could take control of both.

“If the Republicans sweep all three, that will open the door to significant fiscal changes, which is negative for bondholders and could spell higher yields until the dust settles,” said Peter Esho, founder of Esho Capital.

The election comes before the Federal Reserve is due to make its latest policy decision this week, with investors expecting a 25-basis-point reduction after a bumper 50-point cut at its last gathering.

The vote is of particular interest to China, where Beijing is this week meeting to hammer out an economic stimulus.

“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package,” Nomura’s chief China economist, Ting Lu, said in a research note.

Both candidates in the race have pledged to get tougher on Beijing, with Trump promising tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese goods coming into the country.
Economists expect lawmakers to approve around one trillion yuan ($140 billion) in extra budget, mostly for indebted local governments, and a one-off one trillion yuan payment for banks.

Hong Kong made gains and Shanghai was up more than one percent at the close. Tokyo was closed for a holiday.

In the eurozone, Paris and Frankfurt were higher in midday deals.
London gained 0.6 percent, with the Bank of England widely expected to cut its main interest rate on Thursday after inflation dropped below its target rate.

Oil prices won support also after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned at the weekend that Israel and the United States “will definitely receive a tooth-breaking response” to Israeli attacks on October 26.

That strike was in response to an October 1 barrage of about 200 missiles against its rival.

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 8,229.52 points
Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.4 percent at 7,434.89

Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.1 percent at 19,271.49

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 20,567.52 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.2 percent at 3,310.21 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

New York – Dow: UP 0.7 percent at 42,052.19 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0902 from $1.0833 on Friday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2964 from $1.2917

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 151.82 yen from 153.01 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 84.15 from 83.86 pence

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 2.3 per cent at $74.80 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.5 per cent at $71.20 per barrel

AFP